No change in calculation for the rate of wear in October, the blocking of financing gone to last. – Insolentiae

Bad news for the real estate market, which will continue to have to bear the lack of financing for new buyers, and this lack should begin to seriously weigh on prices.

“A new attrition rate will, as planned, be applied on October 1st. But François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Banque de France, has just announced that the calculation formula will not be modified.
The voice of real estate professionals has not been heard. For several months, they have been warning about the problem of wear rates. While these are too low compared to real estate rates, loan refusals are increasing. A figure that reaches 45% of cases, say brokers. On BFM Business, Bérengère Dubus, secretary of credit intermediaries, recently specified that it is not only brokers who alert: “Notaries alerted about 3 weeks ago. The real estate world is alert, the managing director of Crédit Mutuel has alerted. Bankers alert. It’s not the brokers, it’s the whole real estate world, it’s all the borrowers”.

The solution proposed by everyone and all the players in the sector?

Change the formula for the wear rate so that it better reflects the reality on the ground. ” But as in July, the Governor of the Banque de France refuses. On RTL, François Villeroy de Galhau affirms that “mortgage in France is healthy”. And he adds: “the existing calculation formula will be applied at the end of the month and will result in a proportionate increase”. He affirms it: “This will make it possible to regulate the cases of more difficult access to the mortgage that there could have been these last weeks”.

Except that the ECB has just increased its rates by 0.75 and this additional increase will most likely mean that usury rates will remain well below the cost for the banks.

And brokers and bankers “fear that this increase will not be sufficient compared to the rise in rates of recent weeks and compared to that which they anticipate for the weeks to come. And that many files are still blocked until the end of the year. As a reminder, the usury rate is the maximum rate, set and updated by the Banque de France every quarter, at which banking establishments have the right to lend. It is now at 2.57% for terms of 20 years or more and takes into account ancillary costs as well as insurance for the future loan”.

The Banque de France has been warned by all the players for months. The State, from Bercy to the presidency is perfectly aware of this problem of wear rate.

If the Banque de France does not want to review the method of calculation, it is because it is voluntary and they are using this system as a non-monetary measure to limit access to credit and certainly to lower property prices.

But by triggering a crisis and a fall in prices at the very moment when the State wants to encourage, not to say force, owners to carry out energy renovation work, the State takes the risk of triggering a crisis of which it has no idea. of potential magnitude.

Charles SANNAT

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